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Crash Signals
Mean reversion probability: 73% based on 5,629 historical events
Top Movers (24h)
Market Category Price 24h Vol 24h Spread Ends
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Other 100% $326K +58.5pp 0.1¢ Apr 25, 2026
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5) Other 100% $159K +52.4pp 0.1¢ Apr 18, 2026
Warriors vs. Suns Other 0% $8.9M -41.4pp 0.1¢ Apr 18, 2026
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? Sports 100% $5K +40.5pp 0.1¢ Apr 12, 2026
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Crypto 10% $149K -39.5pp 2.0¢ Apr 18, 2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Crypto 100% $242K +31.2pp 0.1¢ Apr 18, 2026
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Sports 72% $91K +29.0pp 1.0¢ Apr 18, 2026
Kash Patel out by April 30? Other 31% $12K +27.3pp 3.9¢ Jun 30, 2026
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Other 39% $137K +26.5pp 1.0¢ Apr 30, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Politics 87% $98K +25.0pp 2.0¢ Apr 30, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Crypto 53% $624K +23.0pp 1.0¢ May 01, 2026
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Sports 29% $16K -21.5pp 1.0¢ Dec 31, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Other 100% $98K +20.0pp 0.1¢ Jun 30, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Geopolitics 59% $147K +18.4pp 0.8¢ Apr 30, 2026
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Crypto 78% $58K +17.0pp 3.0¢ Jul 01, 2026
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Other 59% $20K +16.0pp 3.0¢ Apr 19, 2026
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Science & Tech 44% $7K -15.5pp 3.0¢ Jun 30, 2026
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Other 21% $4K -15.5pp 3.0¢ Jun 30, 2026
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Crypto 19% $58K -15.0pp 4.0¢ Jan 01, 2027
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Other 23% $6K -15.0pp 3.0¢ Jan 01, 2027
Highest Volume
Market Category Price 24h Vol Spread Ends
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Politics 100% $30.2M 0.1¢ Apr 15, 2026
Warriors vs. Suns Other 0% $8.9M 0.1¢ Apr 18, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Other 40% $3.9M 1.0¢ Apr 30, 2026
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Economics 0% $2.7M 0.1¢ Apr 29, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Politics 31% $2.2M 1.0¢ Apr 22, 2026
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Politics 2% $1.8M 0.1¢ Nov 07, 2028
Busan: August Holmgren vs Liam Broady Other 0% $1.7M 0.1¢ Apr 24, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Politics 46% $1.7M 1.0¢ Apr 30, 2026
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Politics 1% $1.6M 0.1¢ Nov 07, 2028
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Geopolitics 30% $1.6M 1.0¢ May 31, 2026
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Other 53% $1.5M 1.0¢ Apr 18, 2026
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Politics 1% $1.5M 0.1¢ Nov 07, 2028
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Economics 99% $1.4M 0.1¢ Apr 29, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Politics 1% $1.4M 0.1¢ Apr 30, 2026
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Politics 1% $1.3M 0.1¢ Nov 07, 2028
Wuning 2: Sergey Fomin vs Fajing Sun Other 13% $1.2M 1.0¢ Apr 25, 2026
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Economics 0% $1.1M 0.1¢ Apr 29, 2026
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Economics 0% $986K 0.1¢ Apr 29, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Geopolitics 24% $868K 1.0¢ Dec 31, 2026
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Politics 1% $849K 0.1¢ Nov 07, 2028
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